The year 2024 has already seen a number of spy shots of new bikes by professionals. Some of them (written on the frame), others we can guess.

It's not just spy shots that can hint at new road bikes that brands are working on, but the combination of a bike's multi-year product life cycle and one that hasn't had an update in a while is also a good clue.

So below are a few new bikes that have already seen the light of day, as well as another bike that we can assume is due for an upgrade.

Perhaps the most interesting spy shot of the year is Trek's new Emonda.

As Josh discusses in his article, this new bike appears to take the IsoFlow seat tube design of the Madone Gen 7 and adapt it to the new platform.

If this is the new Emonda, perhaps the aerodynamic benefits of the large hole under the saddle outweigh the extra weight due to more complex features on what is now Trek's lightweight bike.

Despite the IsoFlow seat tube, the 7th generation Madone still weighs about 150 g less than the 6th generation frame. Much of this is due to the removal of the IsoSpeed decoupler, which suggests that Trek can produce the IsoFlow design without significantly increasing frame weight.

The general trend in lightweight bikes is toward aero. The current Emonda has an aero tube profile, and the latest Bianchi Specialissima and Factor O2 VAM have claimed aero benefits. Speaking of which...

Another new bike that appears to have upped the aero quotient is the latest Factor Ostro VAM. We don't know what Trek is in the spy shots, but we're pretty sure this is the new Ostro VAM - it's written in big letters on the chainstay/top tube.

The front end of the new Ostro VAM is much chunkier than the current model, no doubt taking full advantage of the UCI's relaxed tube profile rules. The rear, on the other hand, is clearly lighter, with little to no top tube/seat tube junction on the Factor; on the O2 VAM, this is claimed to improve compliance and comfort, while the front of the bike is stiff enough to satisfy the pros. The new Ostro VAM seems to follow suit.

See a gallery of Simon Clark's 2024 Factor Ostro VAM here.

Over the past year or so, Giant has updated its Propel aero bikes and Defy endurance bikes (as well as the Liv EnviLiv and Avail women's models). Thus, the TCR and women's Langma are the last Giant platforms that have not yet received updates.

Details of the new TCR/Langma are unknown, but we suspect that this bike will also seek to maintain its light weight while increasing its aero index.

The main benefit of a lightweight bike with enhanced aero is faster climbing on all but the steepest climbs. Front-end integration must be at the top of the upgrade list, as current TCRs, even the £11,000/$12,000 TCR Advanced Pro 0, still have external cabling.

Shots of a subtle update to the Canyon Air Road also appeared in March 2023, when Mathieu van der Pol won Milan-San Remo on a bike with the seatpost clamp moved from the rear of the seat tube to the top of the top tube. Van der Pol's bike had several other small changes.

So will there be a new air road, or is this a modification to avoid the Canyon star rider's seat post slipping and becoming a dropper post on the Poggio?

It is unlikely to be a bike that will bother the peloton, as it does not sing the same aero hymnbook lyrics as the others on this list and does not meet the UCI minimum weight requirements.

Given that this bike was released in 2020, it would not be at all surprising if Specialized came out with a new model aimed at those who like to ride bikes but not race them. At 1248g, the Alpinist is nearly 100g lighter thanks to Black Ink's latest 28/33 wheelset.

With the trend toward integrated cables, it would not be shocking to see a new integrated Roval Alpinist bar with internal routing. However, Specialized has a history of mixing things up, so a return to fully external cables is a possibility, which would surprise us.

Dogma has been updated every two years since 2017. The last update was in 2021, so by our calculations it is overdue. Last year, the new Pinarello F, Dogma X, and the Pinarello series under Dogma underwent a complete overhaul.

When the new Dogma arrives, it will follow the trend of a more aerodynamic front and lighter rear. There is room for deeper tubes and fork legs and thinner stays. As the brand's only race bike and an all-rounder in the same mold as the Tarmac, it should achieve both aero figures and light weight.

But the real question is whether it has more wiggle room than the previous model or not.

Over the past few seasons we have seen DSM riding the extremely aero Scott Foil. The all-around lightweight sibling, Addict, has not been updated since 2020, so a refresh, if any, would not be sudden.

Given Foil's aero performance, the Addict will likely take on the role of a new Canyon Ultimate. It is a lightweight race bike with improved aero performance to tackle both mountain and valley roads.

As before, much integration is expected, with the key number being a reduction in total system weight.

Further speculation: will Cannondale choose to update SystemSix? The brand's aero road bikes have been in service since 2018 and are super aged by aero road bike standards.

More to the point, despite the SystemSix's chunky, go-faster looks, Cannondale has said that the fourth-generation SuperSix, coming in 2023, will have half the aero gap between the previous model and SystemSix than SystemSix more than half the aero gap between the previous model and the SystemSix, and also claims to be significantly lighter.

Therefore, the new SystemSix will need a major overhaul to increase its aero index and reduce fat. Or perhaps the System Six will be pushed to a more all-rounder sibling like the Specialized Venge, with improved aerodynamics.